Highs and Lows

What a day!

It started off well enough. I had stayed up late (2am) working on the site for Oren, and in my sleepiness, forgot to wear the sleep mask and earplugs, so why my roomie decided to do laundry at 7am, well, I got up too and finished the site. I made it into Oren's for the 3rd day in a row at 9am, but this time, I had a completed site for him. So, I get my car fixed. Yay, I felt empowered at getting repairs on my car with no money. I went home and cleaned the house for E. It's kinda scary how easy I fall into domestication mode.

Feeling good, and on the recommendation of another poker player, I went to Bally's for some afternoon poker. The game was quite soft, and I picked up $80 before the game broke up. Feeling like it was time for a celebration (new home, new mechanic, good game) I went to my favourite sushi place for an early dinner. $12 got me stuffed on the freshest fish I've had since I left, save that one joint in Seattle on the Amazon fiasco. Everyone was happy to see me again and it was good to be back. Felt like home; I missed the company and I missed the sushi. Well fed, I changed into evening wear and went to Mandalay. That game was crazy good. There was over $5,000 on the table.

I turned $300 into just over $500 in an hour and was well on my way to the $850 goal I had set for myself prior. The last hand I played, I was dealt the 4 of hearts and the 5 of hearts on the button. I know I haven't yet explained how to play the game, but bear with me, you'll get it. There were 5 other players in the hand with the $2 customary bet raised to $7... it would cost $7 to see the flop. Normally, 45 suited is not a hand you'd play, but with 5 other players and in last position (last to act on all betting rounds) it's a great hand. What you hope for is to hit your 45 with someone else having a big pocket pair, like Kings. I call the $7 with just the lady to my left to act. She raised to $21. Now I already had her pegged; s. She had a big pair. Surprisingly, everyone called, and if I called the $14 raise, the action would stop. Against an opponent you know will give you action if you hit, this is the perfect place to play 45 suited (if there are 4 or more players). If you don't hit the flop, you fold, if you do, well, that's gravy. Most of the time you'll fold, but that one time you hit you make it all back plus more.

The flop comes 458. I've got two pair. She bets out $80. I *know* she's got a big pocket pair. How do I know? Because I watched her play. I watch everyone play when I'm not playing. Everyone folds. She has about the same amount of chips as I do. Now truth be told, I want her to fold, I want to win the pot right there, but if she does call, she's a huge underdog... I'm an 75% favourite to win.

Now, people say poker is gambling, but let me explain once and for all why I don't consider it so.

I'll illustrate with a simple game. Let's say you and I play a game where we each bet $100 and roll just one die. If a 1 comes up, you win. If a 2, 3, or 4 comes up, I win, and if a 5 or 6 comes up, we just roll it again until one of us wins. Hopefully, it is clear that this is not a game you should be playing! You're giving 50-50 odds (we each bet $100) but you are only getting 25-75 odds. Sure, you might win once in a while (1 in 4 games, to be precise) but I'll win most of the the time (3 out of every 4 games). Got it? The key here is in the long run. You might get lucky and win 4 times in row, but that's really unlikely (0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 = like, 3%), and if you keep playing that game with me, you'll go broke and I'll take all your money.

Now as a poker player, I only put myself in those kinds of situations. If I'm not at least a 75% favourite to win, I'm not betting. Yes, in poker, if you know what you're doing, you can do just that, and I do, and that's why I don't consider it gambling.

But back to the game. I'm a 75% favourite to win, and I'm already winning, so I just want to take the pot now... it's $200, not a bad hand. So I overbet the pot to try to get her to fold. I bet $550 - all I have left. She calls and groans loudly when I show her my two pair after she shows me a pair of queens. It was a loose call, a skilled player would have put me on trips, two pair, or a straight and folded.

The next card (the turn) is a 10 of clubs. Now I'm an 80% favourite to win... she can only win if a Queen, Ten, or 8 comes (because then she too would have two pair... higher than my two pair). At best, there are 2 queens left, 3 eights left, and 3 tens left. That's 8 cards of the remaining 45 cards left. 8/45 = 0.2 or 20% at best. That means 80% of the time she'll lose.

By now you can probably guess that the final card was a ten, and she got lucky and took all my money.

Now here's the thing. If I had $2,000 and this happened, I'd rebuy, congratulate her on a hand well played and encourage her to keep doing that - because I want her to do that because I'll win most of the time.

But I don't have $2,000, I only had $300, enough for 1 game (the buyin for the minimum game is $300). So I'm out. I'm not out because I was gambling, I'm out because I didn't have enough money to sustain early bad luck losses like that.

Yeah, I gambled in the sense that I wouldn't need $2,000, but again, with a bankroll, it's not a gamble. 4 nights out of 5, I'd have walked away with her $500, and 1 night out of 5, I'd go home a $300 loser. That would - if I had enough to keep playing - mean I'd make $2,000 and lose $300 for a net gain of $1,700. That's why it's not gambling. If you understand the game and players to only put yourself in >75% chances of wining, you'll be a winner in the long run.

But you have to have the bankroll. I didn't have a bankroll. It cost too much to drive out here and get one month's rent; I only had one shot... I rolled the die, and it came up a 1. That doesn't mean I'm a loser, it doesn't mean I'm a bad player, it just means she got lucky.

It also means I can't play anymore, which now that I'm out here really stings. Losing money used to hurt. It didn't hurt this time because I understood the math, but being out the game, well, they don't have a pill can make that stomach ache go away.